6.12.1913  -  12.12.2002
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One-pole World

The whole history of the mankind is happened to be the continuous rivalry of countries and the fight for leadership (like in a herd!). Since ancient times there appeared in various parts of the world powerful civilizations with their own culture and leadership. They used to conquer weaker countries, founding empires. However, big distances, bad transport, technical facilities and communication means, as well as the lack of significant technological advantage interfered with consolidating even a single continent to a common state.The world continued to remain multi-pole. In recent half a century the USA and the USSR had moved into front line and a number of poles were reduced to two.

But the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact have broken down. Russia inherited missiles and the army, however it was not able any more to involve neighboring countries in its orbit without powerful economy. Totalitarian socialism gave way to liberalism over in economical and ideological competition. Though, the specific Chinese socialism is still existing, but even it is drifting to liberalism. The North Korea and Cuba might not be taken into account - they wold not inflame the world revolution. The Islamic world stands by itself, however it still is not able to be a powerful consolidating force.

Thus, the USA is defined as the only pole of the world. The adherents of the multipole world, belonging to the strongest countries of the world are used to complain hypocriticaly on some restrictions in competition when they are loosing chances to be the leaders.

However, their objections are ungrounded. In a herd, the fight status rise as a stimulus for effort and training is so organically characteristic of all species. Even in the case, when the first place is happened to be unattainable, then all "medium and weak" used to advocate the order supported by the heard leader. For the mankind it means avoiding of a big war.

At the current century, leadership used to instigate the Germans, the Japanese and the Russians to win the world domination. We remember, how it is ended. The European Community, China, Japan and Russia are the real competitors of the USA in the fight for domination. Publication analysis has allowed me to outline the ratio of competitors' potential on a number of indicators.

For simplicity I have chosen the three basic ones and determined the ratio of opponent's potential to that of the USA.

Ratio Table
USA, China, Europe, Japan and Russia

  USA China Europe Japan Russia
1 2 3 4 5
Economy
(Increase of the gross domestic product (GDP), %)
1 (3%) 0,45 (10%) 1(2%) 0,4(3%) 0,1(2%)
Science and Technologies 1 0,1 0,5 0,4 0,3
Military complex 1 0,1 0,3 0,05 0,3
Sum of three indicators 3 0,65 1,8 0,85 0,75
Population in bln 0,3 1,2 0,5 0,12 0,15

Note: Within the next 20 years the economic growth of China is supposed to decrease by 4-6% due to the maturing effect. Nevertheless, in 30-50 years it would overtake the USA on GDP, but it would still lag behind on technologies and weaponry:

The importance of each factor is not the same, but they are all interrelated. Science and technique need education, feed economy and weaponry and in exchange they get financing (USA spends as much for the defense as all the countries together). The country's intellectual potential is the important element of leadership. Scientists from the whole world are invited to the research laboratories of the USA. Expenses for science are enormous. The Americans possess almost one half of all Nobel prizes on science; the USA purchases 80% of all patents. And there are also a lot of other priorities.

At the same time the USA education, culture and democracy promote development of freedom and civil rights, as well as protection of environment in other countries. Therefore its leadership does not threaten the world with return to the socialism or fascism. Even on the contrary, it serves as a guarantor from such outbursts (self-organization is treacherous!) in some countries.

Certainly, the antagonism would not disappear, but it would not spread beyond the boarders of local conflicts (like in a herd: one used to fight without killing). And the last illustration to the above-mentioned: for ten years of the USA real leadership the total military expenses in countries (excluding USA) have been twice reduced: the countries calm down.

However, I would better leave geopolitics, after all the self-organization is unpredictable and the rationality of countries is rather doubtful. But he world is happened to be predictable; therefore total fight for the leadership in a herd of countries is doubtful. At least, at present.