6.12.1913  -  12.12.2002
Home   >   My World Outlook   >   Conclusion.


Before making future forecasts it is useful to survey the beginning of the expiring century. The mechanisms of democracy and capitalism have been already worked out at the USA, France and England. The world community expected to enjoy calm life, miracles of technique, cars, planes and telephone: Then the unexpected started (self-organization!) - world war, revolution, socialism, fascism. It followed by the squall of destructive technique: missiles, nuclear bombs, and the cosmos on the background of the opposition between the West and the USSR. For half a century, the progress of economy and creative sciences have considerably decreased mortality rate, increased production of goods but at the same time the number of industrial waste has increased as well. To the nuclear war danger there added "global problems". Radio, television, chemistry, transport and dwelling problem have concerned every citizen and computer problem - at least many of them. Globalization! Whether it was possible to foreseen it all? Certainly, science fiction writers wrote about it in their books, but who believed them?

As to me, I am not intending to draw pictures of the next century, acknowledgement of self-organization is supposed to cool imagination. Science is sure to make new discoveries, but humanity's everyday life would be aggravated by 10-12 bln. of population (with 30% of old people among them), with obsolete technique, slow income rate and deterioration of environment, one can not expect the fast changing of people life for the better in the nearest future. However, the maturing would continue: poor countriesare supposed to become developing ones, and the developing countries would come close to the rich ones.

People in general would not change. The expectations to improve the genetics of 10 bln.people are ungrounded. It might happen that the genetic embryonic diagnostics would allow to reveal defected babies, but when it is supposed to occur? It is similar to that the pills might decrease the peaks of dangerous behavior of pathological individuals, but how to bring all planets' inhabitants under medical observation? That is why, the deformities and passions would remain.

But there is some start for a few breaking-through: INTERNET might become the most important of them. It is supposed to change a lot: education, labour, business, communication, mass-media. It would destroy "iron curtains", spread ideas of matured society, and provide support for the democracy.

Secondly, - genetics and bio-technologies. It includes: food, medicine, preservation of biological species.

Thirdly, Artificial Intellect - the sphere of optimal control and then - creation.

The basic task is to regulate the self-organization in ideologies and state relations for the sake of not repeating the cataclysms of the twentieth century. Maturing, globalization and one-polar world used to moderate dangers, though not including them completely. It is difficult to settle contradiction between the necessity to carry out hard control over people to let the whole humanity to survive and the principles of individual freedom and democracy.

As to ideologies, i.e. their coordinates in ever- changing world, they are, in principle available for sociology, equipped with monitoring technique of people's psychology and means of influence with various mass media. However, the realization is supposed to be difficult - large scales and self-organization would interfere. But the humanity is moving towards the Intellect.

But the general principles of people's relations were founded by religions still thousand years ago and maybe even earlier still by the ancient herd's ethics. These are compromises to achieve stability and progress. Only content is changing.

I can say only one thing - there is no need to be afraid of the future.